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A recent study conducted by researchers in the United States has found that COVID-19 is difficult to spread when temperatures are between 17°C and 24°C. The paper is published in preliminary form in The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Antarpreet Jutla, associate professor at the University of Florida and senior author of the study, stated that there was a lot of speculation in 2020 about limited transmission of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, during summers. However, there was no certainty in the case.
“We found out there were times when this viral activity decreases. This coincided with when we had very mellow temperatures (very pleasant climatic conditions).
During ambient temperatures in the comfortable range between 17°C to 24°C, people are likely to spend more time outdoors. The study showed that above and below this temperature range make people stay indoors. This has a two-fold effect on virus transmission as indoors, people tend to be more around other people. It can result in increased transmission of the virus.
Indoors, people are also expected to breathe air in a “mechanically controlled environment” due to devices like air conditioners.
The researchers pointed out that these mechanical systems often make the air drier and as a result, it is more likely to contain virus particles.
“An ambient temperature range of 17—24°C is that within which the number of Covid-19 cases decreases in cold and warm regions,” the scientists wrote in the study paper.
They added that both extremes of ambient temperatures are linked with human activity shifting indoors which will facilitate more exposure to recirculated air.
Some of the recent examples of indoor congregations in warm regions causing COVID-19 outbreaks have been pointed out in the research such as religious gatherings that took place in India, Pakistan, Malaysia, and South Korea.
The researchers studied how temperatures impacted the spread of the virus in both warm and cool regions of the US. Using the data from 2020, they built a complex mathematical model to predict the degree of risks due to COVID-19. They further waited for a year to publish the findings of their 2020 study in order to confirm the accuracy of their work.
“We [decided to see] if this is going to be valid for the data from 2021. It was and [the relationship] was stronger than in 2020,” Dr Jutla said.
As of now, the model has been validated in the US. In addition, it is getting validated with data sets from India and the researchers also re-evaluating the model for Omicron with the plans to cover the entire world.
Influenza is another viral illness that spreads more rapidly in the winter as during cooler temperatures people tend to spend more time indoors.
Dr Jutla explained that some parts of the world may experience more than one peak of COVID-19 a year due to climatic factors.
The researchers predicted that in colder regions where ambient temperatures do not exceed 24°C, there may be a single peak in COVID-19 cases during the winter season.
On the contrary, in warmer regions where ambient temperatures do not essentially go below 17°C in the Winter season, a single peak in case numbers is expected during the summer.
Furthermore, in areas where ambient temperatures can fall below 17°C and at other times exceed 24°C, at least two peaks of COVID-19 cases is predicted during the year.
The study, titled "Asymmetric Relationship between Ambient Air Temperature and Incidence of Covid-19 in the Human Population," has been written by six researchers from the University of Florida, one from the University of Maryland and one from the UN.
SOURCE: The National news